In every election there are moments, some obvious at the time, some less so, that shape the state of the race, leaving public opinion on the ground, and eventually in the polls, very different from how they found it.

This year is no exception and since the contest hit the final stretch under early September skies, there are five events — twists in the road — that have led to the general sense of panic we see among Democrats, and renewed confidence for the Republicans.

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It is worth remembering that at the end of August, Kamala Harris was firmly leading, Donald Trump was being bashed, even by some on the right, for choosing JD Vance as his running mate, and frankly, the picture was looking really rosy for the Democrats. But that was all about to change. 

Here are the five moments that wrought that change.

1. RFK Jr Endorsing (And Normalizing) Trump

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Donald Trump at the end of August was the moment that Trump regained momentum in the election. Harris had flatlined, albeit with a narrow lead, but the Trump campaign was also stalled out.

RFK Jr did two things. First, he brought along most of his voters, as polls now show us, to Trump, and these are people who aren’t big fans of Trump or Harris, but trust the Kennedy scion to demand accountability from either. Second, the endorsement was an arrow to the heart of the argument that Trump is some fascist, or threat to democracy. If Kennedy wasn’t buying it, then neither were most Americans in the middle.

2. The Harris Debate Victory Mirage

In the minutes after last month’s debate between Harris and Trump, Democrats and their media allies were over the moon about Kamala speaking her truth to power and stylistically trouncing the bad orange man. 

Others weren’t so sure. Yes, Trump seemed flat, and Harris did better than many expected, but she had a unique job to do, which was to tell the American people who she is and what she stands for, especially given that she had no primary cycle in which to do so. On this count she squarely failed, and the voters I spoke to all knew it. It was the biggest missed opportunity of the race by either side. There was no bounce for Harris. In fact, it was when polls started moving to Trump.

3. JD Vance Strikes Back

As I have insisted in these pages for months, the media’s farcical attack on JD Vance for being weird never landed with voters, but it was enough, early on to be a stumbling block, leading the punditry to declare his selection a mistake. Then he debated Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee Tim Walz, coming away with a clear, if not overwhelming, victory.

Before and after the debate, Vance sought out every tough interview he could get and proved himself deft and able at defending Trump and populism, even in the teeth of left-wing talking points. Today, it is obvious that his selection was a boon to the ticket.

4. Joe Biden Voters Jumping Ship

Of all the hard turns and switchbacks of the past month, the one that nobody I talked to saw coming, be they voters, pundits, consultants or clairvoyants, was that there a significant number of voters, especially in Pennsylvania, who would have voted for Scranton Joe, but aren’t voting for Harris.

The bombshell moment that revealed this was the Teamsters refusal to endorse Kamala after the union’s internal polling showed that while Biden beat Trump, Trump trounced Harris among its members. According to Pew Research, Trump now has the lead in the bellwether Catholic vote, which Biden won in 2020. This as Harris refuses to attend the Catholic Al Smith Dinner and Gov Gretchen Whitmer mocks the Eucharist on tik tok with a Harris Walz hat on. 

This could all spell revenge for Joseph Robinette Biden.

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5. Harris’ Embarrassing Media Gauntlet

Over the past week, as concern turned to panic in Democratic circles, the Hidin’ Harris 2024 campaign realized it had a problem, that nobody knows who she is, and she had better go get on TV. It did not go well.

First, she did so poorly on “60 Minutes” that CBS News had to surreptitiously edit her real response to a question about Israel when her ham-fisted actual response was a rank slurry of jingoistic buzzwords.

Then Harris took to “The View,” where she couldn’t think of anything the Biden administration should have done differently, and then hours later, failed to answer the same softball question on the Stephen Colbert show. Harris isn’t just not ready for prime time, she isn’t ready for daytime or late-night either, and boy, did it show.

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There’s just over three weeks until Election Day, and a lot can change, but over the past month and a half, all the breaks have gone Trump’s way, and Harris’ willful refusal to define herself or her policies has kept her from fighting back.

The Harris campaign needs some major late-game changes, but after the five twists that put Trump back in command, all he needs to do is stay the course.

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